The main movers and shakers across Western Europe's new BEV passenger car market during the opening 10 months of 2024, according to exclusive Schmidt Automotive Research data published in the monthly European Electric Market Research Study (€) each month.
Volkswagen Group remains the largest OEM group despite the market share dilution, with MEB-based models accounting for four of the top seven BEV models registered across the region this year. Meanwhile, seven of the top ten BEV models across the region in October were MEB-based models, including Ford's Explorer.
ŠKODA's Enyaq was the most registered BEV model across the region outright in October.
Ford's MEB-based Explorer and Capri should also expand regional scaling benefits further during 2025. Geely brands (including Volvo Cars and Polestar, among other brands) recorded the greatest market share gain while China's BYD also recorded a strong market share gain but from a low baseline, with MG seeing its share of the regional BEV market retract in an almost sequential rate.
Tesla witnessed the greatest market share loss over the same period last year. With little new product on the horizon from Tesla and incumbent manufacturers about to up the tempo and bring new, ground-up genuine BEVs to market from 2025 to help meet regulatory targets, such as BMW Group's Neue Klasse-based models, Tesla looks like it is being squeezed from the top and the bottom (Renault Group etc) as well as new BEV models from China. 🇨🇳
Even before we see those model roll-outs, Tesla is seeing its West European regional volumes fall by 13% y/y during the opening 10 months of 2024, while the region's BEV market only witnessed a slight decline of 1.9% y/y during the same period, according to Schmidt Automotive Research data.
That resulted in the Elon Musk-led company's share of the regional BEV market falling 2ppts to 15.7% during the opening 10 months of the year from 17.7% during the same period last year.
Its share of the region's total new car market remained below 3% year-to-date at 2.5%, despite weak pricing.
Will lease replacement drivers decide to jump ship to the new products coming to market from the brands they deserted three years ago?
Few comparable BEV models to Tesla's were available at the time, which helped secure low lease rates backed by generous government subsidies and advantageous fiscal taxation rates—or both.
As the low point in the West European BEV passenger car market cyclical lease-driven cycle is slowly about to end, returning positively during 2025/26, Tesla's arguably largest challenge is only just about to begin, with retention being the keyword in a restricted regional market.
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*Western Europe 18 Markets: EU Member States prior to the 2004 enlargement plus EFTA markets Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, plus UK
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