As one passenger car manufacturer warned us at the end of last year, 2025 is likely to see regulatory CO2 credit pools formed early, with EU CO2 fleet emissions targets sinking from just under 119g/km in the WLTP cycle to 93.6g/km from 2025 to 2029.
EU official data indicates that not only old Tesla partners Stellantis (FCA were previously part of the Tesla pool in 2020) intends to join Tesla's 2025 CO2 pool, indicated in a so-called declaration to join an open pool document, despite former CEO Carlos Tavares insisting Stellantis can reach targets, but Toyota's collective group of pooled manufactures will also join alongside Ford that have spoken openly about struggling to shift their new BEV models rolling off their Cologne production site.
This could suggest that manufacturers are struggling to meet targets but also indicates that OEMs are aiming to secure a redundancy option if they fail to meet their weight-based fleet target by the end of the year.
Volkswagen Group is likely to pool with Chinese partners as it did in previous years, while Volvo/Polestar, accompanied by other Geely brands, is likely to accommodate struggling manufacturers, too. Mercedes-Benz CEO källenius has previously suggested they will pool with their Geely JV brand, Smart, with official data showing an open-poll formed with their JV company, that now manufacture exclusively in China, up to the end of 2027. BMW Group CEO Zipse has said BMW can achieve the target without any help from others.
The same OEM that suggested that pools will be formed early in 2025 also indicated to us that securing pools has moved from a non-descript back office to the CEO making the calls between various partners.
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*Western Europe 18 Markets: EU Member States prior to the 2004 enlargement plus EFTA markets Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, plus UK
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