From our Q4 2024 European Chinese OEM passenger car market intelligence study: A quarterly breakdown of 2024 identifies that Chinese-brand new passenger car registrations returned above 100,000 units during the year's final quarter.
A record 111,074 new models (all fuels) entered the monitored 18 market West European region between October and December despite the introduction of countervailing EU duties imposed for five years on Chinese-made BEV models ranging from 17% - to 35.3% from November.
The return back to over 100,000 units follows a drop to 92,764 during Q3 impacted by low inventory following a pull-forward into 2024's second quarter (102,818) due to the threat of retrospective provisional tariffs being implemented from early July, which were later dropped on legal grounds.
A European type-approval change for new vehicles permitted to be sold across the region from July, including changes to in-car cyber-security systems, also impacted some Chinese models and the consequential pull-forward of vehicles in the European inventory.
Third-quarter volumes are also intrinsically impacted by seasonality impacts, from low volumes during the slow summer vacation period of July and August, but also include a perennial boost from the UK at the close of the quarter thanks to the registration plate changeover effect.
This adds more context to the sequential fall in Q3 volumes not appearing as negative as they first appear, with volumes actually growing slightly faster than the total market, seeing Chinese volumes' combined market shares rise by 0.1ppt over Q2 to 3.5% share of the total new car market across all fuels and by a further 0.4ppts during the final quarter of the year to just under 4%.
During the full year 2024, Chinese OEM new model volumes rose by 14.3% over previous year levels in a market environment that witnessed volumes fall slightly by 0.2%, resulting in a market share increase for Chinese models of 0.4ppts to 3.4%, but still far off manufactures from other Asian markets.
Japanese OEMs accounted for 13.1% (+1 ppt) of the market and Korean brands 7.9% (-0.2ppts y/y). Japanese brand peaked at 14.3% during 2007. Despite anti-subsidy EU tariffs, aimed at BEVs imported from China to the EU block, impacting Chinese OEMs from November 2024, with tariffs ranging from 17% - 35.3% depending on OEM, and the standard 10% import tariff for finished vehicles on top of that, the final quarter of 2024 witnessed total Chinese volumes rise to their highest level, 111,074 on record rather than fall.
An almost 20% sequential rise in volumes over the previous quarter was recorded, resulting in a record quarterly share of the region's new car market of 3.9%, helping the full-year penetration rise to 3.4% during 2024 (2023: 3.0%). The rise can be attributed to a number of factors.
The UK, which isn't replicating tariffs, continues to account for every fourth new Chinese model entering the region.
This gives Sino brands the opportunity to continue delivering BEV models with high-profit margins – thanks to 30% lower costs compared to a UBS report – and effectively filter out some of that EU tariff effect through UK windfalls on a European-wide basis.
The UK accounted for 20.6% of Western Europe's new BEV registrations during the final quarter of 2024.
Meanwhile, 29% of the Chinese OEM BEV new models ended up there during the same period.
We are also seeing a trend develop of Chinese OEMs delivering more non-BEV anti- subsidy tariff-free models across the region, with the share of these models accounting for a 60% Sino delivery split of registrations during the final quarter of the year (see page 10).
One final notable tailwind is the global daily charter rates for PCTCs (pure-car-truck-carrier vessels) falling following record highs.
Daily charter rates are expected to half in 2025, according to industry platform VesselsValue, from a record high of $120,000 during 2024 as new ships are delivered.
These cost savings can also act as a bridge to soak up implemented EU tariffs and increase margins across the UK.
The full analysis continues in the full study available here
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*Western Europe 18 Markets: EU Member States prior to the 2004 enlargement plus EFTA markets Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, plus UK
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